Not all is going as well for the Democrats and their quest to retake congress as the Partisan Press would lead one to believe. A coordinated GOTV and a motivated Republican base are poised to turn conventional wisdom upside down, again.
I’ve formatted a couple of excerpts from the memo for your perusal:
The survey was commissioned by the Republican National Committee to identify the most effective messages to mobilize the Republican Base for the 2006 elections and determine where the Base stands on important issues in this election cycle. It follows similar studies of the Base completed in 2002 and 2003.
Overall support for President Bush and congressional Republicans from the Republican Base is very strong. The generic congressional vote from Republicans is an overwhelming 84% to 6%, within sampling error of what we found for the 2004 elections. An equally impressive 88% to 11% majority of Republicans approve of the way the President is handling his job.
Intended turnout from the Base also is extremely high. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are “almost certain” to vote this November, and another 14% say they are “very likely” to vote. This, too, is within sampling error of the intended turnout of Republicans for the 2004 elections.
National Security is, by far, what concerns Republicans the most heading into the ’06 elections, taking seven of the top eighteen issues.
Here is what the memo had to say about that:
Global War on Terror
Foreign Threats – Ranking at the top of what will motivate Republicans in 2006 is dealing with the foreign threats to our national security and supporting the President’s leadership in the War on Terror. Large majorities report satisfaction with the President’s commitment to defeat the terrorists in Iraq and his leadership in the War on Terror, in general. In addition to Iraq, concerns about other foreign threats are included here. For example, Republicans are very concerned both about Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism, and its potential of developing nuclear weapons. A huge 87% of the Base expresses extremely strong feelings about one or more of these issues.
Domestic Fight Against Terrorism – Republicans see the renewal of the Patriot Act, better protection of our borders, and NSA surveillance of terrorist phone calls and phone records as an interrelated set of issues. Fully 80% of the Base expresses extremely strong feelings about at least one of these steps to enhance our national security.
Democrats Weakening the Global War on Terror – Of the five issues on which we tested Democratic Party positions, its position on the War on Terror causes the strongest negative feelings, on average, from Republicans. A 56% majority of the Base has extremely strong feelings about the Democratic Party’s WOT position. Republicans, also, tend to view this as an independent issue from their feelings about foreign threats and the domestic fight against terrorism. As such, it can provide an important reinforcement to the other War on Terror messages to mobilize the Republican Base. For these three global War on Terror message areas, 93% of the Republican Base holds extremely strong feelings about one or more of them.
A motivated Republican Base is far more valuable than an imploding Democrat Party, IMHO. Keep that eraser close at hand. It will prove quite useful since the current ‘conventional wisdom‘ so closely resembles ’02. The election calculus has become more fluid following the thwarted terrorist attack on international flights, and many of those ‘predicted’ democrat gains are likely to disappear.
Crossposted at Redstate
“The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.” – Ronald Reagan